Labbe explained that the IRP model includes load forecasts, existing resources data,
new resource cost, fuel price projections, environmental regulation and reliability
standards.
Labbe explained the load forecast, noting that the load has increased over time. He
identified where COVID occurred in the graphs.
Labbe stated that we sell and buy energy through the MISO market. He mentioned that
energy revenues play into this as well. Labbe then turned it over to Marquees Kimmey,
portfolio manager.
Kimmey discussed the resource options as well as the modeling of the various energy
sources. He walked the council through the modeling in Columbia’s portfolio. Kimmey
showed the summer load balance and where Columbia’s customers get those various
energy solar. Columbia is currently below the Summer Load Capacity and is expecting
to have a serious drop in the year 2040. Columbia is expecting some retirement for the
energy producers that support Columbia. Gwen Corches, Assistant Utilities Director,
emphasized that this is an assumption and not guaranteed to happen.
Kimmey displayed the winter load balance. Mostly these assumptions are to fix the
summer load because it has a considerably higher peak compared to winter.
Kimmey moved on to the Base Case and what the model is planning for the upcoming
resource balance. Kimmey said the constraints are resources and time to get contracts
and those plants built or producers built.
Kimmey mentioned that 120 MegaWatts wind and 30 MegaWatts solar will achieve 40%
carbon-free energy by 2040. Kimmey mentioned the biggest challenge will be the
lead-time needed for energy to come online. Labbe explained that it takes more time for
energy to come online because of the constraints from COVID and tariffs. Batteries used
to be made in less than a year, and now it is taking 2 to 3 years to get them built.
Council member Nick Foster asked if new tech is included in these forecasts and Labbe
mentioned that the LSMR are the ones included, for example 4-hour batteries, flexible
natural gas, and renewables. Foster also about the coal retirements that they are
anticipating. Kimmey mentioned that Siksten’s retirement is in 2028. Crum mentioned
that they were conservative by using the timeline on what the earliest date these coal
plants could retire.
Council member Valerie Carroll asked what kind of conditions they are taking into
account, weather, energy users, etc. Labbe mentioned that both of them are included in
these projections. They are not assuming any large loads in the base case. Labbe
mentioned direct loss of load studies, which are where these margins are set. They do
include weather events, but not a significant load increase (large user), such as a data
center. Labbe mentioned that a lot of places are requiring large load users (e.g. data
centers) to bring their own capacity. Labbe mentioned that large technology companies
are investing heavily into SMRs. Municipalities and other energy companies are not able
to afford to build SMRs at an affordable price.
Council member Christina Hartman asked if accreditation changes based on what ISO is
regulating it. TEA said that it does change going by ISO, but they currently use MISO
standards.
Kimmey introduced the winter load base case, mentioning it meets and is slightly over in
some of the years. He mentioned that there is no change in the build out compared to the
base case for summer. Kimmy showed the annual costs incorporated into the base case.