virtually. The monthly forecast is a linear regression model. The inputs are: CMWL
monthly total energy and peak demand history for January 2005 through July 2025,
monthly historical weather data for January 1995 through July 2025, and Woods &
Poole economic data for Boone County (which allowed the model to choose between
6 different economic indicators and find which one fit best to load history). The
outputs are the monthly system totals and peak load for CMWL, and separate
models are utilized for each season. The 6 economic growth variables that were
tested for Boone County using data from Woods & Poole are: total population, total
employment, total personal income, gross regional product, number of households,
and total retail sales. Additional considerations are energy efficiency, electric vehicles,
and behind-the-meter (BTM) generation. Projected growth in BTM generation is
expected to more than offset electric vehicle charging impacts through 2039. Electric
vehicle charging has a lower impact on peak demand relative to total energy, due to
lower charging during afternoon hours (summer peak periods). As part of MISO’s
resource adequacy process, CMWL is required to forecast seasonal peak demand
coincident with MISO Zone 5 and the MISO System. To derive coincident peak,
non-coincident peak is multiplied by a coincidence factor, which is the ratio of
coincident peak to non-coincident peak. As maximum temperature deviates from
MISO system peak-producing temperatures, CMWL’s coincidence factor declines.
There is an increase in fall coincident peak demand, with similar coincident peak in all
other seasons.
Mr. David Switzer asked what the next steps are, and Mrs. Sarah Talbert informed
him that TEA has already submitted the load forecast to MISO.
Mr. Ryan Westwood asked for any insight about how the EV data has changed, and
Mr. Brandon Williams explained that an adjustment had to be made to account for the
loss of the EV tax credit that expired this year. The EV forecast is a little lower every
year, and there’s not a steep growth projected in the late 2030’s like in the prior
projection.
VI. FINANCIAL REPORTS (as available)
a) Monthly Financial Reports
Mrs. Sarah Talbert presented the monthly financial reports through September. The
quarterly financial statements are preliminary and unaudited. The cash and cash
equivalents of water and electric are up from the same time in June 2025; overall, the
cash is up about $22 million. The monthly billed water and electric usage is up from
June of 2025 but lower than September of 2024. Operating revenues for both water
and electric are higher than the same time last year. Operating expenses for both
water and electric are higher than the same time last year. September represents
100% of the budget year. Water operating revenues are currently at 100.2% of the
budget; same time last year was 105.8% of the budget. Electric operating revenues
are currently at 105.1% of the budget; same time last year was at 106.3% of the
budget. Water operating expenditures are currently at 85.7% of the budget; same
time last year was at 83.5% of the budget. Electric operating expenditures are
currently at 90.9% of the budget; same time last year was at 96.2% of the budget. On